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‘Overcapacity’ claim groundless as China’s green tech fuels global growth: Tian Xuan_我的网站

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    Tian Xuan Photo: Courtesy of Tian
In economic theory, "overcapacity" - for which no universally accepted definition exists - is inherently a recurring feature of the market economy's dynamic "balance - imbalance - rebalance" cycle. The Western narrative that equates China's sizable production capacity directly with "overcapacity" defies economic logic and rigor; in reality, it represents a politicization of trade and economic issues.
First, it confuses the concepts of "capacity scale" and "overcapacity." China's overall industrial capacity utilization remains within a reasonable range. Periodically lower utilization in traditional sectors reflects a normal adjustment as these industries advance toward high-end, intelligent, and green production. Ample capacity in certain emerging industries is precisely what meets surging global demand for high-end, smart, and green solutions. Therefore, equating scale with excess is typical equivocation.
Second, "overcapacity" itself is a dynamic feature of market economies, where no fixed balance persists indefinitely. Judging capacity based solely on static snapshots violates basic economic principles.
Third, it is erroneous to simplistically link trade surpluses or industrial subsidies to overcapacity, while ignoring the macro context of global specialization and cross-border savings-investment structures. It also disregards the reality that reasonable capacity utilization ranges differ across economies at varying stages of development. Imposing a single standard on China is neither scientific nor rigorous.
China's global competitiveness in green technology stems from sustained, large-scale investment in innovation, a comprehensive industrial and supply chain system, massive application scenarios, and intense market competition - not from alleged government subsidies. After decades of long-cycle R&D, Chinese industries have achieved breakthroughs in core technologies such as power batteries and photovoltaic modules.
During the 14th Five-Year Plan period (2021-25), China's nationwide R&D spending grew at an average annual rate of 10 percent. Economies of scale have continuously diluted production costs. China's ultra-large domestic market and full-chain supporting ecosystem provide an optimal testing ground for new technologies - from pilot verification to mass deployment. With more than 200 million market entities driving fierce competition, enterprises are constantly compelled to cut costs, raise efficiency, and upgrade products, thereby forging dual advantages in price and performance that we see today.
There is no direct causation between subsidies and overcapacity. Industrial subsidies are a globally recognized practice, typically aimed at correcting market failures and advancing critical technologies. China's subsidies are granted on an impartial basis to all types of market entities, in full compliance with WTO rules, and have not triggered disorderly capacity expansion.
Currently, capacity utilization in China's green industries remains within a reasonable range. Support is primarily directed toward R&D, technological breakthroughs, and consumer-side incentives through market-based mechanisms - not toward fueling overcapacity. Crucially, China's high-quality capacity has reduced the global cost of green transition, representing an opportunity rather than a shock to world development.
Against the backdrop of global carbon neutrality goals, labeling China's new energy capacity as "overcapacity" is entirely untenable. According to the International Energy Agency, global data center electricity consumption will approach 1 trillion kWh by 2030, with 40 percent of incremental power needing to come from renewables. Demand for wind power, photovoltaics, power batteries, and related green energy solutions remains far from saturated - so claims of "overcapacity" are groundless.
China's capacity plays a central role in advancing the global energy transition. Over the past decade, the levelized cost of electricity from wind and solar globally has fallen by more than 60 percent and 80 percent respectively - improvements largely attributable to Chinese innovation and manufacturing, which have directly lowered the cost threshold for worldwide green transformation.
The US journal Science crowned the global renewable energy surge led by China among its Top 10 Breakthroughs of 2025. Leveraging its technological and scale advantages, China is well positioned to supply abundant, high-quality green energy equipment and solutions, meet fast-growing renewable demand from data centers, industrial production, and other sectors, and tangibly support countries in implementing the Paris Agreement. In short, China is a pivotal force driving the global low-carbon transition.
The so-called "China Shock 2.0" is fundamentally a protectionist narrative rooted in Cold War thinking - a politically motivated claim inconsistent with facts. The rapid development of China's modern industries is driven by innovation and sustained institutional reform, not by dumping allegedly excess capacity abroad. Rather than posing a shock, China's industrial progress offers a "China Opportunity 2.0." It delivers multiple dividends to global development - innovation dividends, market dividends, and growth dividends - while injecting stability and vitality into global industrial chains through an open and win-win approach.
China's high-quality green and high-tech exports have tangibly accelerated the global green transition and reduced production costs worldwide. Meanwhile, as the world's largest goods consumption market and the second-largest importer for 17 consecutive years, China provides enormous market opportunities for economies around the globe. Moreover, China's open-source collaboration and technology sharing in frontier fields such as artificial intelligence and the digital economy enable developing countries to bridge the digital divide at lower cost and share in the benefits of the technological revolution.
The facts demonstrate that China's emerging technologies and products represent a "China Opportunity 2.0" - driving global technological progress, accelerating the green transition, improving livelihoods across nations, and bolstering the industrialization of developing economies. This open and mutually beneficial cooperation stands as the true engine of global economic recovery and sustainable development. 
This article is compiled based on an interview with Tian Xuan, dean at the Guanghua School of Management and Boya Distinguished Professor of Finance of Peking University. [email protected]

。    일러스트 | NEWS IMAGEA씨는 유튜브에서 두툼해 보이는 ‘속기모 겨울바지’ 광고를 보고 제품을 주문했다. 하지만 배송된 바지는 여름바지처럼 얇았다. A씨는 광고와 실제 상품이 너무 다르다며 판매자에게 이의를 제기했다.B씨는 정상적으로 사용할 수 있다는 ‘틀니’ 광고를 보고 5만9000원을 결제했다. 열흘을 기다려 받아본 택배 상자에는 장난감 수준의 얇은 플라스틱 치아 모형과 실리콘 알갱이가 들어 있었다.서울시는 26일 유튜브 광고를 통해 접속한 해외 쇼핑몰에서 광고와 다른 저품질 상품을 받거나 판매자와 연락이 두절돼 반품·환불을 하지 못하는 소비자 피해가 빠르게 늘고 있다며 주의를 당부했다.올해 상반기 1372소비자상담센터와 서울시전자상거래센터에 접수된 관련 상담 건수는 총 359건이다. 6월 상담은 142건으로 1월(31건)보다 약 4.6배 늘었다.상담 유형별로 보면 허위·과장광고와 환불·청약철회 거부가 각각 24.0%인 86건으로 가장 많았다. 이어 판매자 연락두절 21.7%, 배송 문제 13.4%, 반품비 과다청구 11.4% 순이었다.품목별로는 의류·패션용품 피해가 227건으로 전체의 63.2%에 달했다. 이어 가구·생활·주방용품 11.1%, 보건·위생용품 10.6% 순이었다.                   서울시 제공건당 평균 피해 금액은 7만849원으로 집계됐다. 전체 피해의 88.9%가 10만원 미만 거래에서 발생했다. 피해 소비자는 중·장년층에 집중됐다. 연령이 확인된 339건 중 50대가 34.8%, 60대 이상이 30.4였다.서울시는 유튜브 광고 내용이나 할인율만 보고 바로 결제하기보다 상호·주소·연락처 등 판매 사업자 신원정보, 반품·환불 조건 등을 먼저 확인할 것을 당부했다. 특히 사이트 아래쪽 상호·주소·연락처 등 사업자 정보가 제대로 표시돼 있는지, 브랜드명과 관계없는 영문 도메인이나 임시 호스팅 주소를 사용하는지 등을 살펴볼 필요가 있다.결제 화면에 통화 단위가 달러(USD) 등 외화로 표시되거나 개인통관고유부호를 요구하는 경우 해외에서 발송되는 거래임을 인지하고 더욱 신중하게 결제해야 한다.피해 발생에 대비해 광고 화면과 주문·결제 내역 등 거래 관련 자료를 미리 캡처해 보관하는 것도 중요하다. 문제가 생기면 카드사 차지백 서비스를 이용할 수 있다. 차지백은 해외 거래에서 사기·미배송·환불 거부 등 피해가 생긴 경우 카드사별로 신청기한 내 결제 취소를 요청할 수 있는 서비스다.온라인 쇼핑 관련 피해를 입은 소비자는 서울시전자상거래센터(ecc.seoul.go.kr·02-2133-4891~6) 또는 민생경제안심센터(sftc.seoul.go.kr·1600-0700)를 통해 상담받을 수 있다.。

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Published on:12:07:10